$67.68B a year in installed residential roofing demand, sized bottom-up across 935 metro and micropolitan areas (317.7M residents) and broken out by region, state and metro.
Built bottom-up from 935 metros: Census ACS housing stock (2023), Census Building Permits (2022–2024), BLS QCEW establishments (2020–2024), NOAA Storm Events (2016–2025). Scope: Residential roof replacement plus roofing on new single-family construction. Commercial and multifamily roofing are not included.
Census regions. Each metro is assigned whole to its region.
| Region | Annual demand | Share | Jobs / year | Metros |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | $27.68B | 40.9% | 1,826,284 | 378 |
| Midwest | $18.17B | 26.8% | 1,082,999 | 284 |
| Northeast | $11.18B | 16.5% | 660,870 | 97 |
| West | $10.65B | 15.7% | 698,105 | 176 |
Each metro's demand is apportioned to its counties by single-family housing, so a metro that crosses a state line counts in both. Rural counties outside a metro are not modeled.
| # | State | Annual demand | Share of US | Jobs / year | Largest metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | $6.65B | 9.8% | 447,890 | Dallas, TX |
| 2 | California | $4.19B | 6.2% | 265,313 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 3 | Florida | $3.96B | 5.9% | 280,042 | Miami, FL |
| 4 | Illinois | $3.59B | 5.3% | 209,110 | Chicago, IL |
| 5 | Ohio | $3.19B | 4.7% | 189,289 | Cleveland, OH |
| 6 | Pennsylvania | $3.15B | 4.7% | 186,240 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 7 | New York | $2.93B | 4.3% | 172,554 | New York, NY |
| 8 | North Carolina | $2.51B | 3.7% | 172,455 | Charlotte, NC |
| 9 | New Jersey | $2.10B | 3.1% | 124,239 | New York, NY |
| 10 | Georgia | $2.02B | 3.0% | 135,038 | Atlanta, GA |
| 11 | Indiana | $1.97B | 2.9% | 119,915 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 12 | Michigan | $1.92B | 2.8% | 115,053 | Detroit, MI |
| 13 | Virginia | $1.85B | 2.7% | 114,395 | Washington, DC |
| 14 | Tennessee | $1.72B | 2.5% | 112,529 | Nashville, TN |
| 15 | Missouri | $1.70B | 2.5% | 101,097 | St. Louis, MO |
| 16 | Minnesota | $1.65B | 2.4% | 99,217 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 17 | Wisconsin | $1.60B | 2.4% | 95,099 | Milwaukee, WI |
| 18 | Colorado | $1.52B | 2.2% | 94,733 | Denver, CO |
| 19 | Maryland | $1.42B | 2.1% | 85,685 | Baltimore, MD |
| 20 | South Carolina | $1.30B | 1.9% | 91,547 | Greenville, SC |
| 21 | Washington | $1.30B | 1.9% | 81,812 | Seattle, WA |
| 22 | Massachusetts | $1.24B | 1.8% | 73,141 | Boston, MA |
| 23 | Arizona | $1.11B | 1.6% | 81,864 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 24 | Alabama | $1.04B | 1.5% | 67,108 | Birmingham, AL |
| 25 | Oklahoma | $1.04B | 1.5% | 63,670 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 26 | Kentucky | $987.29M | 1.5% | 60,082 | Louisville/Jefferson County, KY |
| 27 | Iowa | $889.33M | 1.3% | 53,604 | Des Moines, IA |
| 28 | Louisiana | $854.28M | 1.3% | 53,881 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 29 | Kansas | $798.05M | 1.2% | 47,540 | Kansas City, MO |
| 30 | Connecticut | $762.48M | 1.1% | 44,281 | Hartford, CT |
| 31 | Arkansas | $657.33M | 1.0% | 41,570 | Little Rock, AR |
| 32 | Oregon | $584.79M | 0.9% | 37,915 | Portland, OR |
| 33 | Puerto Rico | $578.34M | 0.9% | 32,860 | San Juan, PR |
| 34 | Nebraska | $544.50M | 0.8% | 33,102 | Omaha, NE |
| 35 | Mississippi | $540.48M | 0.8% | 33,533 | Jackson, MS |
| 36 | Utah | $450M | 0.7% | 32,995 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 37 | Nevada | $397.02M | 0.6% | 29,505 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 38 | West Virginia | $396.59M | 0.6% | 23,381 | Charleston, WV |
| 39 | New Hampshire | $329.28M | 0.5% | 19,564 | Manchester, NH |
| 40 | Idaho | $323.70M | 0.5% | 24,588 | Boise City, ID |
| 41 | New Mexico | $299.98M | 0.4% | 18,820 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 42 | Delaware | $253.08M | 0.4% | 16,983 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 43 | South Dakota | $224.60M | 0.3% | 13,972 | Sioux Falls, SD |
| 44 | Rhode Island | $191.65M | 0.3% | 11,298 | Providence, RI |
| 45 | Maine | $189.92M | 0.3% | 12,146 | Portland, ME |
| 46 | Montana | $156.33M | 0.2% | 10,159 | Billings, MT |
| 47 | Hawaii | $146.57M | 0.2% | 9,428 | Urban Honolulu, HI |
| 48 | North Dakota | $135.45M | 0.2% | 8,267 | Fargo, ND |
| 49 | Wyoming | $95.88M | 0.1% | 6,072 | Cheyenne, WY |
| 50 | Vermont | $95.58M | 0.1% | 5,943 | Burlington, VT |
| 51 | Alaska | $84.28M | 0.1% | 4,902 | Anchorage, AK |
| 52 | District of Columbia | $46.54M | 0.1% | 2,834 | Washington, DC |
The 25 largest metros carry 40.9% of US roofing demand. Each links to its full market file: housing stock, competition, county map and trends.
| # | Metro | Annual demand | Share of US | Jobs / year | Demand / firm | Saturation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York, NY | $2.97B | 4.38% | 174,159 | $4.76M | Land Grab |
| 2 | Chicago, IL | $2.67B | 3.95% | 156,040 | $3.50M | Balanced |
| 3 | Dallas, TX | $2.03B | 3.00% | 136,355 | $2.28M | Crowded |
| 4 | Houston, TX | $1.50B | 2.22% | 108,987 | $3.09M | Balanced |
| 5 | Philadelphia, PA | $1.40B | 2.07% | 83,275 | $3.23M | Balanced |
| 6 | Washington, DC | $1.30B | 1.92% | 79,056 | $3.74M | Wide Open |
| 7 | Atlanta, GA | $1.27B | 1.88% | 83,949 | $1.79M | Crowded |
| 8 | Los Angeles, CA | $1.27B | 1.87% | 77,223 | $1.42M | Crowded |
| 9 | Minneapolis, MN | $1.15B | 1.70% | 69,450 | $4.40M | Wide Open |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, PA | $1.08B | 1.59% | 62,820 | $7.33M | Land Grab |
| 11 | St. Louis, MO | $1.04B | 1.54% | 61,395 | $3.81M | Wide Open |
| 12 | Detroit, MI | $939.17M | 1.39% | 55,557 | $5.13M | Land Grab |
| 13 | Denver, CO | $839.10M | 1.24% | 51,732 | $1.58M | Knife Fight |
| 14 | Boston, MA | $819.22M | 1.21% | 48,227 | $2.96M | Wide Open |
| 15 | Phoenix, AZ | $753.06M | 1.11% | 56,412 | $1.98M | Balanced |
| 16 | Kansas City, MO | $707.91M | 1.05% | 42,416 | $2.88M | Balanced |
| 17 | Seattle, WA | $702.20M | 1.04% | 42,818 | $1.39M | Crowded |
| 18 | Indianapolis, IN | $686.41M | 1.01% | 43,126 | $3.32M | Balanced |
| 19 | Cleveland, OH | $681.15M | 1.01% | 40,043 | $3.37M | Balanced |
| 20 | San Antonio, TX | $680.26M | 1.01% | 43,601 | $4.12M | Wide Open |
| 21 | Cincinnati, OH | $656.94M | 0.97% | 39,137 | $3.30M | Wide Open |
| 22 | Baltimore, MD | $643.71M | 0.95% | 38,307 | $4.50M | Land Grab |
| 23 | Charlotte, NC | $628.85M | 0.93% | 44,260 | $2.23M | Balanced |
| 24 | Nashville, TN | $626.58M | 0.93% | 42,110 | $2.82M | Balanced |
| 25 | Miami, FL | $624.33M | 0.92% | 38,094 | $515.97K | Knife Fight |
Download all 935 metros (CSV) Expansion rankings by reachable demand →
What the national total is made of, and where it concentrates.
Census Building Permits Survey, 914 metros reporting every year. At the model's builder price this is $8.99B (2022), $8.49B (2023), $9.08B (2024) of new-construction roofing demand.
The drivers measured over time. There is no market-size growth rate here: the housing inputs are a single ACS vintage, so the total has no measured history.
BLS QCEW, NAICS 238160, annual average, 922 metros reporting every year — a metro suppressed in any year is left out of every year, so a disclosure gap is not read as firms closing.
NOAA Storm Events, 858 metros, every year loaded. Hail pulls roofing replacement forward; it is the storm signal in the model.
Demand per specialty contractor establishment, and how US demand splits across the five saturation cohorts the metro reports use. Cohorts are quintiles of metros, so each holds about a fifth of them; the share of demand is what differs.
| Saturation cohort | Share of US demand | Median demand / firm | Metros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Grab | 16.0% | $6.14M | 183 |
| Wide Open | 20.3% | $3.99M | 183 |
| Balanced | 30.5% | $2.74M | 184 |
| Crowded | 19.5% | $1.81M | 183 |
| Knife Fight | 12.5% | $1.23M | 184 |
About $67.68B a year in installed value (labor and materials) across the 935 metro and micropolitan areas NextTerritory models, home to 317.7 million people. $58.58B of that is replacement on existing homes and $9.10B is new single-family construction, roughly 4,268,259 jobs a year. The figure is built bottom-up, metro by metro, from Census, BLS and NOAA data.
By annual demand: Texas $6.65B (9.8%); California $4.19B (6.2%); Florida $3.96B (5.9%); Illinois $3.59B (5.3%); Ohio $3.19B (4.7%). Together the top five carry 31.9% of national demand. State totals apportion each metro across its counties by single-family housing, so metros that cross a state line are split correctly.
New York, NY $2.97B; Chicago, IL $2.67B; Dallas, TX $2.03B; Houston, TX $1.50B; Philadelphia, PA $1.40B. The 25 largest metros account for 40.9% of US demand.
NextTerritory does not publish a growth rate for the market size itself: the housing-stock inputs come from a single American Community Survey vintage, so there is no measured history of the total to grow from. What is measured over time: single-family permits, the new-construction driver, moved +1.0% from 2022 to 2024 across 914 metros reporting every year; roofing contractor establishments (NAICS 238160) moved +20.2% from 2020 to 2024 across 922 metros reporting every year.
For each of the 935 metros: owner-occupied single-family homes that can buy the work, divided by the line's service life to give annual replacements, adjusted for housing age and hail exposure, priced at the model's average ticket — plus single-family permits priced at a builder rate. The national figure is the sum. The same model, at metro grain, powers every NextTerritory market report.
Most industry reports size manufacturer or material sales. This figure is installed value — what homeowners and builders pay contractors, labor and materials together — for residential work only, so it is larger and is not directly comparable. It is also reported by state and by metro, which national reports generally are not.