01
Explore
See all 935 markets on one map, sized by demand and colored by opportunity.
Market expansion intelligence · Exterior Home Services / R&R
Where should you grow next?
NextTerritory helps residential exterior operators and PE sponsors see what a metro is worth in annual replacement work — and how crowded it already is — before committing capital.935 US metros. Roofing, siding, windows, gutters.
Free to explore — no account, no card. Every market, every figure.
- Markets
- 935every US metro, scored on one model — no cherry-picking
- Service lines
- 4roofing, siding, windows, gutters — modeled separately, never blended
- Components
- 7each weighted and disclosed
- Periods
- 25ten years of storms, twenty quarters of competition
- Federal sources
- 3Census, BLS, NOAA — no panel data
How it works
Three steps between a question and a defensible answer.
02
Evaluate
Open a market file: demand, competition, housing age, storm record — and how each has moved over ten years.
03
Prioritize
Compare up to four markets side by side, then run the numbers at your own ticket and capacity.
Who it's built for
Built for companies ready for their next market.
The analysis is the same for everyone. What changes is the decision it feeds.
Regional & national exterior operators
You've proven the model in the markets you know. Rank the ones you don't — on evidence, not on where the founder grew up.
PE-backed platforms & roll-ups
Test a thesis metro by metro: where demand runs deep, where contractor density runs thin, and where the two overlap.
Strategy & business development teams
Walk into the pipeline meeting with every candidate market scored on the same model — and a source under every number.
CEOs, COOs & CFOs
A first read on any market in minutes, before anyone commits capital, credibility or a year of somebody's life to it.
What it answers
The questions a pipeline review actually asks.
- 01Which of our candidate markets has the deepest demand for this line of work?
- 02Is that demand a wear cycle or a storm cycle, and how much of the number depends on hail?
- 03How many contractors already serve it, and how does that compare with markets we operate in?
- 04How much of the housing stock has passed one replacement cycle?
- 05What do these numbers look like at our prices, with our crews?
- 06Where did every one of these figures come from, and how old is it?
What a market file contains
Every market answers the same questions, in the same order.
Nothing is a national figure divided 935 ways. Every market is built from its own housing stock upward — which is what makes two markets comparable.
| Component | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Replacement demand | Annual dollars of work from housing units, service life and local ticket | Census ACS |
| Housing stock | Age, value and tenure — the variable that moves replacement rate more than population growth | Census ACS |
| Competitive density | Establishments per single-family home, by specialty trade | BLS QCEW |
| Storm exposure | Damaging hail per 1,000 sq mi over ten years | NOAA Storm Events |
| Climate load | Heating and cooling degree days against the 1991–2020 normals | NOAA NCEI |
| Growth | Permit intensity and construction momentum | Census BPS |
| Affluence | Household income and home value behind the ticket | Census ACS |
The seven components are combined into one 0–100 composite by percentile rank, not by z-score — replacement-demand figures are heavily right-skewed, and a z-score would let one metro flatten the rest of the country to zero.
Where to start
Get your first answer before your first invoice.
A commissioned market study covers one metro, takes six weeks and costs five figures. It's the right tool late in a decision. NextTerritory is the tool for the step before it: a defensible first read on every market you're considering — in an afternoon, for free. If a market survives this screen, then it's worth somebody's six weeks.
Stated limits
What the model does not do.
Published here rather than discovered later. Each of these is a known boundary, not an estimate we are confident in.
| Limit | What it means for a decision |
|---|---|
| Some quarters of competitor data are withheld | BLS suppresses a county's firm count where too few firms sit in it. Those periods are dropped and labelled rather than estimated, and where too many are missing the trend is withheld entirely. |
| Coverage is whole-metro, not drive-time | A branch serves a radius. Sprawling markets — Riverside, Phoenix — are overstated for a single location. Narrow to counties before committing. |
| Replacement is steady-state | The model assumes a uniform age distribution within the stock. In fast-built metros such as Austin, real replacement arrives in waves. |
| No insurance dynamics | Carrier behaviour materially drives roofing conversion after hail, and none of it is in here. |
| Residential only | No commercial or industrial roofing, siding or glazing. |
Diligence on a territory should not begin after the LOI.
Open any of 935 markets and read the demand, the housing stock, the storm record and the competition in one file. Then substitute your own ticket and capacity and see if the story holds.