Replacement demand, competitive density and housing stock for windows & doors in Modesto, CA, on the same basis as every other US metro. Every figure is computed from current Census, BLS and NOAA data and traceable to its source.
How much windows & doors work the Modesto metro generates in a year, and what share of it a single branch or acquisition could realistically reach.
Computed from the component scores below — not written by hand, and not generated.
Modesto, CA has an unusually large pool of addressable homes, households that can fund a job of this size and real construction activity relative to its size. That works out to 94,727 addressable homes and an effective replacement cycle of about 27 years, or $44M of windows & doors a year.
The problem is a mild climate that is easy on the envelope and little storm activity to pull work forward. The arithmetic does not put this market ahead of others, and arithmetic is famously hard to charm.
Seven components, each a percentile against all 935 US metros. The opportunity score is their weighted average, tilted toward what windows & doors specifically depends on.
The interactive market file adds the full component breakdown, the inputs behind every figure, side-by-side comparison with other metros, and a re-pricing against your own ticket and installed capacity.
Substitute your ticket and installed capacity and the file recalculates: what you could deliver here, how your pricing lands against local incomes, and what would have to be true for the case to hold. Open access, no account, and the result is a link you can put in a memo.
Build my Modesto Windows & Doors report →The same metro, sized for the other trades.
Metros a Modesto-based operator could reach.
This market on one page; the other 935 on two more.
Every US metro ranked by reachable windows & doors demand — where there is most work to go after, and how crowded each market already is.
The model, every weight and every known limitation — what the score is made of, and where it is weakest.
The questions worth answering before committing capital to a market.
The Modesto, CA metro generates roughly $44.49M of windows & doors demand a year, across about 4,378 jobs. That combines replacement work on the existing housing stock — 94,727 homes that can buy this service, cycling at the typical replacement interval — with windows & doors work on new construction. A single operator serving part of the metro can realistically reach $24.47M of it.
Modesto scores 52.2 out of 100 for windows & doors, which ranks it 424 of 935 US metro areas. Modesto, CA has an unusually large pool of addressable homes, households that can fund a job of this size and real construction activity relative to its size.
There is no metro-level count of windows & doors firms specifically — the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes establishments at the trade-group level. For the Modesto, CA metro that is 761 specialty-trade contracting establishments (NAICS 238, covering roofing, siding, windows, gutters and the other exterior trades). That works out to 141.5 owner-occupied homes per contractor — the higher that number, the less crowded the market.
The average home in the Modesto, CA metro is about 43.4 years old, and 48% of homes predate 1980. The median year of construction is 1981 — that figure and the average age are two different statistics and will not line up exactly, because the average is a weighted mean across every construction-year band while the median is only the midpoint. Housing age is the single strongest driver of windows & doors replacement demand, because roofs, siding and windows are replaced on a cycle rather than bought on impulse.
Public sources only: the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey and Building Permits Survey for housing and households, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for contractor counts, and NOAA Storm Events and Climate Normals for hail and weather exposure. Market sizing applies published replacement cycles and average ticket prices to that stock — it is a model, not a measurement, and every assumption is visible inside the interactive report.
Yes. This page and the full interactive Modesto windows & doors market file are open access — no account, no card and no sales call. The methodology, including every weight and known limitation, is published in full.
Public data only. No proprietary panels, no estimates of estimates — every figure on this page traces to one of these.
Figures reflect the most recent published vintage of each source as of 2026-08-13. Market sizing is a model, not a measurement: it applies replacement cycles and average ticket prices to the housing stock. Service areas are whole metros, so a single branch serving a drive-time radius will address less than the totals shown.